2024 Social Safety Price of Residing Adjustment (COLA) Projections

[Updated on July 12, 2023 after the release of the inflation number for June 2023.]

Retirees on Social Safety obtain a rise of their Social Safety advantages every year often known as the Price of Residing Adjustment or COLA. The COLA was 8.7% in 2023, which was the most important in 40 years. Retirees on Social Safety will as soon as once more obtain a COLA in 2024 however it gained’t be as huge because the one in 2023.

Computerized Hyperlink to Inflation

Some retirees suppose the COLA is given on the discretion of the President or Congress they usually need their elected officers to care for seniors by declaring a better COLA. They blame the President or Congress once they suppose the rise is simply too small.

It was executed that manner earlier than 1975 however the COLA has been routinely linked to inflation for almost 50 years. How a lot the COLA will probably be is set strictly by the inflation numbers. The COLA is excessive when inflation is excessive. It’s low when inflation is low. There’s no COLA when inflation is zero or damaging, which occurred in 2010, 2011, and 2016.

CPI-W

Particularly, the Social Safety COLA is set by the rise within the Client Value Index for City Wage Earners and Clerical Staff (CPI-W). CPI-W is a separate index from the Client Value Index for All City Customers (CPI-U), which is extra usually referenced by the media once they discuss inflation.

CPI-W tracks inflation skilled by staff. CPI-U tracks inflation skilled by shoppers. There are some minor variations in how a lot weight totally different items and companies have in every index however CPI-W and CPI-U look virtually similar whenever you put them in a chart.

The pink line is CPI-W and the blue line is CPI-U. They differed by solely smidges in 30 years.

There’s additionally a analysis CPI index known as the Client Value Index for People 62 years of age and older, or R-CPI-E. This index weighs extra by the spending patterns of older People. Some researchers argue that the Social Safety COLA ought to use R-CPI-E, which has elevated greater than CPI-W within the final 30 years.

The inexperienced line is R-CPI-E. The pink line is CPI-W. R-CPI-E outpaced CPI-W in 30 years between 1993 and 2023 however not by a lot. Had the Social Safety COLA used R-CPI-E as a substitute of CPI-W, Social Safety advantages would’ve been increased by 0.1% per yr, or a bit of over 3% after 30 years. That’s nonetheless not a lot distinction.

No matter which precise CPI index is used to calculate the Social Safety COLA, it’s topic to the identical total worth setting. Congress selected CPI-W 50 years in the past. That’s the one we’re going with.

Q3 Common

Extra particularly, Social Safety COLA for subsequent yr is calculated by the rise within the common of CPI-W from the third quarter of final yr to the third quarter of this yr. You get the CPI-W numbers in July, August, and September. Add them up and divide by three. You do the identical for July, August, and September final yr. Evaluate the 2 numbers and around the change to the closest 0.1%. That’ll be the Social Safety COLA for subsequent yr.

The federal government releases the CPI-W for September in mid-October every year. The Social Safety Administration makes the calculation and publicizes the Social Safety COLA for the next yr at the moment.

2024 Social Safety COLA

Though we gained’t know for positive what the Social Safety COLA will probably be in 2024 till we now have the CPI-W for September, we are able to make educated guesses primarily based on the inflation numbers in latest months and totally different situations for inflation within the coming months.

I undertaking the CPI-W underneath three situations – low, mid, and excessive. If inflation within the coming months by way of September is 0%, that means that costs freeze on the newest degree, that’s our low inflation state of affairs. If inflation within the coming months is 3% per yr, which signifies that costs will improve by roughly 0.25% monthly by way of September, that’s our mid-line state of affairs. Lastly, if inflation within the coming months is 5% per yr, which signifies that costs will improve by roughly 0.4% monthly by way of September, that’s our excessive state of affairs.

Right here’s what the Social Safety COLA will probably be in every state of affairs:

Within the low inflation state of affairs, despite the fact that costs will freeze on the newest degree, Social Safety recipients will nonetheless obtain a 2.6% COLA in 2024 as a result of present costs are already increased than costs within the third quarter of final yr. As we progress towards September and we see optimistic inflation, this 2.6% quantity will go up.

The mid-line might be the probably state of affairs. Inflation in latest months is down however not zero. If inflation continues at a average tempo, Social Safety recipients will see roughly a 3% COLA in 2024.

The excessive state of affairs requires a 0.4%/month improve within the CPI-W by way of September. This isn’t out of the query. If inflation stays excessive, Social Safety could have a 3.4% COLA in 2024.

The variations in these three situations aren’t enormous. Between a 2.6% COLA within the low inflation state of affairs and a 3.4% COLA within the excessive inflation state of affairs, it comes all the way down to a distinction of $16/month on a $2,000/month Social Safety profit or a distinction of $24/month on a $3,000/month profit.

Medicare Premiums

In case you’re on Medicare, the Social Safety Administration routinely deducts the Medicare premium out of your Social Safety advantages. The Social Safety COLA is given on the “gross” Social Safety advantages earlier than deducting the Medicare premium and any tax withholding.

Medicare publicizes the premium for subsequent yr across the identical time Social Safety publicizes the COLA however not essentially on the identical date. The rise in healthcare prices is a part of the price of residing that the COLA is meant to cowl. You’re nonetheless getting the complete COLA despite the fact that part of the COLA will probably be used towards the rise in Medicare premiums.

Retirees with a better revenue pay greater than the usual Medicare premiums. That is known as Earnings-Associated Month-to-month Adjustment Quantity (IRMAA). I cowl IRMAA in 2023 2024 2025 Medicare IRMAA Premium MAGI Brackets.

Root for a Decrease COLA

Individuals intuitively desire a increased COLA however a better COLA can solely be attributable to increased inflation. Greater inflation is unhealthy for retirees.

Whether or not inflation is excessive or low, your Social Safety advantages could have the identical buying energy. It’s the buying energy of your financial savings and investments outdoors Social Safety that it is best to fear about. When inflation is excessive, despite the fact that your Social Safety advantages get a bump, your different cash loses extra worth to inflation. Your financial savings and investments outdoors Social Safety will last more when inflation is low.

You desire a decrease Social Safety COLA, which suggests decrease inflation and decrease bills.

Some individuals say that the federal government intentionally under-reports inflation. Even when that’s the case, you continue to desire a decrease COLA.

Suppose the true inflation for seniors is 3% increased than the reported inflation. In case you get a 1% COLA when the true inflation is 4% and also you get a 5% COLA when the true inflation is 8%, you might be a lot better off with a decrease 1% COLA along with 4% inflation than getting a 5% COLA along with 8% inflation. Your Social Safety advantages lag inflation by the identical quantity both manner, however you’d quite your different cash outdoors Social Safety loses to 4% inflation than to eight% inflation.

Root for decrease inflation and decrease Social Safety COLA if you end up retired.