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Yeye Issoufou has joined pro-coup demonstrations in Niger thrice since members of the presidential guards seized energy within the West African nation on July 26.
Numbering of their lots of, the crowds have marched by the streets of Niger’s capital, Niamey, singing songs and waving placards hailing the nation’s self-declared new chief Abdourahmane Tchiani. They booed “imperialist France” in addition to the Financial Neighborhood of West African States (ECOWAS), which has threatened to intervene militarily and restore deposed President Mohamed Bazoum.
Issoufou, who works at Aghrymet, a local weather institute within the capital, is pissed off by insecurity, corruption and a worsening financial system in landlocked Niger. The nation is battling armed teams linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS) and is among the many poorest on the earth.
“They [France] have been exploiting uranium right here for nearly 63 years however we don’t have a dam that may produce electrical energy for Niger,” he stated of Niamey’s former colonial ruler.
“We’ve hopes that the navy regime will make Niger higher due to the way in which they’ve communicated to the folks. They stated they’ve established different methods to develop our financial system.”
The coup in Niger makes the nation the fifth in West Africa – after Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Chad – whose authorities has been toppled by its navy since 2020.
Worldwide condemnation has been swift and harsh, significantly from ECOWAS, which has imposed a number of sanctions in opposition to Niger, together with a no-fly zone and border closures. Neighbouring Nigeria, which provides 70 p.c of Niger’s electrical energy, has additionally lower off the ability provide, plunging the 25-million-strong inhabitants into darkness.
The regional bloc additionally gave Niger’s navy a one-week ultimatum to reinstate Bazoum, by August 6, or threat navy intervention.
Collision course
In a last-ditch try at diplomacy, Nigeria on Thursday despatched a delegation led by former navy chief Abdulsalami Abubakar – who handed over Nigeria’s energy to a civilian in 1999 – to barter with Niger’s coup leaders.
However Tchiani refused to satisfy the delegation and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu on Friday requested parliamentary approval for navy intervention. An ECOWAS spokesperson informed reporters in Abuja on the identical day that defence chiefs from the regional bloc have labored out “all the weather that may go into any eventual intervention … together with the assets wanted, the how and when we’re going to deploy the drive”.
France, in the meantime, has additionally voiced help for the bloc’s efforts.
With the ECOWAS-issued ultimatum set to run out on Sunday, uncertainty looms over Niger with thousands and thousands of Nigeriens now dealing with the prospect of struggle and hardship.
Specialists say any navy intervention can be expensive.
“I believe this has the potential to be disastrous,” stated Cameron Hudson, a senior affiliate within the Centre for Strategic and Worldwide Research’s Africa Program.
“The one constructive factor we will say about this coup up to now is that there was no violence,” Hudson informed Al Jazeera. “And I believe we should always protect the peace in Niger for the sake of the folks, and an intervention drive led by Nigeria creates a really probability that maybe uncontrollable violence will escape and that doesn’t strike me as a constructive end result for anybody.”
‘Zero-sum recreation’
ECOWAS has despatched troops to regional international locations in turmoil earlier than.
In 2017, when The Gambia’s President Yahya Jammeh refused to concede energy to the election winner Adama Barrow, ECOWAS led an intervention drive to take away the authoritarian chief. Jammeh’s forces supplied little resistance and he later fled into exile.
However what was comparatively simple in The Gambia seven years in the past shall be far more difficult in Niger, with navy leaders in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso backing Tchiani and declaring that any intervention in opposition to Niamey shall be thought of a declaration of struggle in opposition to their nations.
Niger’s coup leaders have additionally courted Russia, reportedly looking for assist from Russian mercenary group, Wagner, which despatched troops to Mali after the navy coup there.
“These [ECOWAS] forces are usually not skilled for this mission. ECOWAS can not bully Niger [as it has the backing of] Mali and Burkina Faso, as a result of the one combating drive that has the expertise of combating and coaching collectively are these international locations within the G5 Sahel,” Hudson stated.
He was referring to a regional drive arrange in 2017, which included troops from Niger, Chad, Mauritania, Burkina Faso and Mali, and which obtained coaching in addition to funds from the West to battle armed teams linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL within the Sahel.
Specialists additionally worry {that a} battle in Niger may benefit al-Qaeda, ISIL and different armed teams who would have room to develop stronger if governments within the area get distracted in a battle with one another.
Any battle would even have extreme humanitarian penalties.
Niger, the seventh-largest producer of uranium, ranks 189th amongst 191 international locations within the 2022 United Nations Human Improvement Index. The sanctions which have already been imposed in addition to an eventual struggle will solely thrust extra hardship on on a regular basis Nigeriens already battling local weather change, poverty and assaults from armed teams.
“Being one of many poorest folks on the earth, the sanctions [and war] are going to impoverish folks additional by way of entry to vitality, financial engagement, trans-border commerce… the lot is closed in opposition to Niger now,” stated Oluwole Ojewale, an analyst on the Senegal-based Institute of Safety Research.
“Warfare is a zero-sum recreation. Regardless that the opposite facet of ECOWAS is stronger than the facet that has been hijacked by navy juntas, the very fact stays that there shall be humanitarian penalties on each ends and it’s the poor that may bear the brunt of this,” he informed Al Jazeera.
Ojewale famous that greater than one million Nigerian refugees – now dwelling in Niger’s border cities after fleeing assaults from bandits and the Boko Haram armed group – would even be caught within the crossfire.
Deploying troops to Niger may additionally show expensive to West African nations, a lot of that are battling their very own safety challenges.
“Every of ECOWAS’s international locations has inner operations they’re coping with already and the consequence is that the militaries will turn out to be overstretched in every of the international locations in the event that they make navy contributions,” Ojewale stated.
“Cash that must be channelled in direction of housing, well being and schooling shall be channelled to struggle – and at what prices?”
He added that any resistance by the navy authorities in Niger may additionally provoke a protracted struggle that would reverberate throughout your complete area.
“Tchiani’s likelihood is very low, however you don’t go into one other individual’s home to assault the individual and never obtain some bruises,” Ojewale stated.
“We will solely see the start of the struggle; no person can predict the way it will finish.”
Defiance, worry
Because the ECOWAS deadline looms, the coup supporters in Niamey stay defiant.
“We’re decided to undergo any form of stress and penalties. The folks will settle for no matter it is going to price, lives or something, and it’s as a result of we’re uninterested in our leaders,” stated Issoufou.
“There at the moment are nearly 5 borders open to us – Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Algeria and Libya, so we will survive.”
Others, nevertheless, are fearful.
Samaila Mahamadou, who lives in Niger’s second-largest metropolis, Maradi, hopes diplomacy will prevail.
The 26-year-old graduate from the College of Ilorin in Nigeria stated he doesn’t imagine Niger’s navy leaders have the capability to resolve issues plaguing his nation.
Since 1960, Niger has solely had a single transition between civilian governments, in April 2021, when Mahamadou Issoufou handed energy to Mohamed Bazoum. This bleak historical past doesn’t encourage hope in Mahamadou.
“Contemplating the navy coups which have occurred earlier than, we didn’t see any change,” he stated.
“As a substitute, the troopers come, carry our cash and go and go away the nation for a civilian, and they’re going to come and do one other coup later. Troopers are usually not meant to control however to defend our nation in opposition to hazard. If they’re in control of the nation, the nation can’t be higher.”
Though he doesn’t help the coup, Mahamadou is afraid a navy intervention will worsen the circumstances for him and his countrymen.
Greater than 40 p.c of Niger’s funds comes from support. With France and the USA having suspended support, the navy should look elsewhere for financial sustenance, presumably opening the door for Russia
Mahamadou, tense and afraid, stated he shall be on the lookout for updates always.
“If ECOWAS invades Niger, there shall be bloodshed, and my nation shall be destabilised. They need to attempt some diplomatic methods to resolve the issue,” he stated.
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