The final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign reveals a neck-and-neck contest shaped by competing forces that support both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in their bids for the White House.
The poll shows that Harris receives support from 49% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump also garners 49%. Only 2% of voters remain unsure about their choice.
Harris benefits from rising Democratic enthusiasm, a 20-point lead over Trump on the issue of abortion, and an advantage in perceptions of which candidate better supports the middle class.
Conversely, Trump gains support from two-thirds of voters who feel the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Many voters view Trump’s presidency favorably, especially when compared to President Joe Biden’s current performance. Trump also holds a double-digit advantage on key issues such as the economy and the cost of living.
Little separates Harris and Trump in final NBC News poll
The candidates tie at 49% in the head-to-head national ballot test as a close, uncertain race comes to a close. No candidate has earned majority support in over a year of NBC News polling. The nation’s intense polarization shapes this close contest, with a gender gap of more than 30 points separating the voting preferences of men and women. Regardless of who wins the presidential race, 60% of voters believe the country will remain divided.
The stability in the survey also stands out, showing little change in the contest since last month, despite the frantic campaign activity in the final weeks and the billions of dollars spent on advertisements.
“This data is very stable compared to where we were in October,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
“We’ve grown further apart, and we’ve picked our corner,” McInturff added. “Each side is as locked down as it gets, and they don’t budge or move.”
The 49%-49% race in this poll remains essentially unchanged from the NBC News poll in October, when both candidates stood at 48% each. In an expanded ballot that includes third-party candidates, Trump receives 47% while Harris gets 46%, with a combined 7% supporting other candidates or remaining undecided — again, unchanged from October.
A similar picture with third-party candidates included
Half a percentage point separates Trump from Harris when including third-party candidates, which falls well within the margin of error. Voters only heard about candidates in states where those candidates are officially on the 2024 ballot.
Given that close elections often hinge on which party can better mobilize its voters, the NBC News poll offers a snapshot of potential outcomes based on different turnout scenarios.
In a slightly more favorable environment for Republicans, characterized by increased turnout among men, white voters, and voters without college degrees, Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 50%-48%.
Conversely, in a more favorable turnout scenario for Democrats, marked by a slight increase in participation from women, white voters with college degrees, and voters of color, the survey indicates that Harris leads Trump by 3 points, 50%-47%. All of these results fall within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
However, due to the nation’s Electoral College system, the presidential contest will ultimately depend on the outcomes in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The latest polls from those states show close margins and little certainty as well.
A 34-point gender gap
At 49%-49%, the NBC News poll results are as close as they can be. However, significant differences in candidate support persist among various groups.
The poll shows that Harris enjoys her largest advantages over Trump among Black voters, with an overwhelming 87% supporting her compared to just 9% for Trump. She also leads among younger voters under 30 years old, 57%-41%, and white voters with college degrees, 55%-43%.
In contrast, Trump holds a strong lead among rural voters, capturing 75% of their support compared to Harris’s 23%. He also leads among white voters, 56%-42%, and white voters without college degrees, 64%-34%.
A prominent feature of the election remains the substantial gender gap between Harris and Trump. Women support Harris by a 16-point margin, with 57% backing her compared to 41% for Trump, while men favor Trump by 18 points, with 58% supporting him and 40% supporting Harris.
Trump is ahead on cost of living and the border; Harris leads on abortion and the middle class
As voters evaluate how the candidates would address key issues and their presidential characteristics, Harris holds a significant advantage on abortion, leading Trump by 20 points on which candidate better handles the issue. She also leads Trump by 9 points, with 51% of voters believing she better looks out for the middle class compared to 42% for Trump.
In contrast, Trump enjoys double-digit leads on handling the economy, where he receives 51% of voter support compared to Harris’s 41%. He also leads on dealing with the cost of living, with 52% supporting him over Harris’s 40%. Furthermore, Trump maintains a 25-point edge on securing the border and controlling immigration, which has consistently been his strongest issue throughout the 2024 campaign.
Biden remains a drag for Democrats
The NBC News poll reveals that 41% of registered voters approve of President Joe Biden’s job performance, while 58% disapprove.
This approval rating has dipped slightly from the 43% who approved of his performance in October.
In comparison, when voters evaluate Trump’s time in office, 48% approve of the former president’s job performance, while 51% disapprove. This marks no change from last month’s poll and represents the highest approval rating recorded for Trump during his time in office.
More than half of voters say they’ve already cast ballots
The poll, conducted through Saturday night, reveals that 54% of registered voters report they have already voted, while another 11% plan to vote early in the remaining days.
Among the early-voting group, which constitutes nearly two-thirds of the electorate, Harris leads Trump by 7 points in the head-to-head race, with 53% supporting her and 46% supporting him. This marks a significant shift from the final 2020 NBC News poll, when Biden led Trump by more than 20 points among early voters. Trump and the Republican Party have made substantial efforts to encourage his supporters to vote early this year.
Among the 33% of voters who plan to wait until Election Day, Trump holds a 16-point lead, with 56% backing him and 40% supporting Harris.
This contrasts with Trump’s nearly 30-point lead among Election Day voters four years ago.
Other findings in the poll
Regardless of who wins the presidential contest, 60% of registered voters in the poll believe the U.S. will remain divided, while only 28% think it will become more united after the election.
Harris and Trump have nearly identical popularity ratings, with 43% of voters viewing Harris positively and 50% viewing her negatively, resulting in a net rating of -7. In comparison, Trump receives a score of 42% positive and 51% negative, giving him a net rating of -9.
In the battle for Congress, 47% of voters prefer Democratic control, while 46% want Republicans in charge. This figure remains essentially unchanged from last month when the two parties were tied at 47% each.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from October 30 to November 2, with most respondents contacted by cellphone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
