Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and failed former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg now lead amongst Democrat presidential major voters in New Hampshire.
This ballot of 648 major voters launched on July 22 exhibits AOC on the prime with 22 p.c help. Buttigieg is correct beneath her with 21 p.c. Everybody else is in single digits.
U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) earns 9 p.c help. Failed Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is at eight p.c. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) earns simply six p.c. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is at 5 p.c.
Different candidates who appear significantly concerned with working are in even worse form. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) will get simply two p.c of the vote, whereas Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) is at one p.c.
On this similar ballot, going again to October of 2025, there was some notable motion. AOC elevated her help from 14 p.c to 22 p.c.
Much more notable are those that have misplaced help. Kamala Harris took a dive from 11 p.c to 5 p.c. Newsom additionally misplaced about half his help, going from 15 p.c to eight p.c.
Newsom have to be discouraged. He’s been actively working for president for 3 years, and the upper his profile, the decrease his numbers. Effectively, he does suck.
We don’t but know the way very important New Hampshire can be within the 2028 Democrat major course of. Whereas New Hampshire had been the primary major state (after the Iowa caucus) for a lot of election cycles, it was demoted in 2024 in favor of South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, and Iowa after some complained that the predominantly white state had an excessive amount of affect.
Democrats haven’t but nailed down their 2028 presidential major schedule, so the place New Hampshire will sit within the pecking order is anybody’s guess. My guess is that New Hampshire will as soon as once more get demoted.
Within the nationwide polling, in keeping with the RealClearPolitics ballot of polls, Kamala is in first place, up by 11.3 factors over second-place Newsom (27.9 p.c to 16.6 p.c).
From the place I sit, it’s going to be fairly tough for the Democrat Get together to disclaim Kamala Harris one other shot on the Oval Workplace, or what can be argued is a “truthful shot,” which she didn’t get in 2024 as a result of it took so lengthy for Democrats to appreciate Joe Biden was about to lose after which bully him out.
Democrats are additionally captured fully by an obsession with identification, and Kamala ticks off three of these very important containers: She’s black, she’s a girl, and though nobody will say so, she’s a helpful fool.
Which means that South Carolina is more than likely to come back first as a result of it has a big black inhabitants.
The Democrat Get together merely can not afford to alienate black voters in 2028, particularly black girls. You’ll be able to ask James Talarico about that.
#AOC #Buttigieg #Presidential #Main #Leads
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