Global Heat Records Likely to Be Broken in the Next Five Years, WMO Warns
There is an 80% chance that global temperatures will break at least one annual heat record within the next five years, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The rising heat increases the risk of severe droughts, floods, and wildfires around the world.
For the first time, the report also suggests a small chance—about 1%—that the planet could experience a year with temperatures 2°C above preindustrial levels before 2030. Scientists called this possibility “shocking,” as such warming was previously thought to be out of reach in such a short timeframe.
Following the hottest decade on record, the WMO’s medium-term climate update outlines a growing threat to human health, economies, and ecosystems unless the world reduces its reliance on fossil fuels like coal, oil, gas, and biomass. The report combines short-term weather data with long-term climate projections and estimates a 70% chance that the five-year average temperature for 2025–2029 will exceed 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
Crossing this threshold would bring the world dangerously close to breaching the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal—limiting long-term average warming to 1.5°C. While the treaty measures temperature change over a 20-year average, surpassing the threshold even temporarily signals accelerating climate risks.
The report also highlights that there’s now an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass 1.5°C—more than double the likelihood reported in 2020, which stood at 40%.
In 2024, the world exceeded the 1.5°C mark on an annual basis for the first time—something that earlier five-year projections, prior to 2014, did not anticipate. Last year also marked the hottest in 175 years of global temperature records.
The updated projections emphasize the speed of climate change, with even a 2°C increase now emerging as a statistical possibility. This assessment is based on a set of 220 model simulations from 15 global institutions, including the UK Met Office, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, and Germany’s Deutscher Wetterdienst.
Although the chance of hitting 2°C before 2030 remains very low—around 1%—it would require a rare combination of warming drivers, such as a strong El Niño event and a positive Arctic Oscillation. Nevertheless, experts note that this scenario, once thought impossible in such a short period, can no longer be ruled out.
Leon Hermanson from the UK Met Office, who led the report’s development, said 2025 is on track to be among the three hottest years ever recorded.
Chris Hewitt, director of climate services at the WMO, warned of increasing health risks from heatwaves but stressed that it’s not too late to act. “We must take climate action,” he said. “1.5°C is not inevitable.”
