How Pakistan managed to get the US and Iran to a ceasefire | US-Israel warfare on Iran

Islamabad, Pakistan – Slightly below 90 minutes remained till United States President Donald Trump’s deadline to destroy Iran’s “civilisation” late on Tuesday in Washington, DC, when he took to his favorite social media platform, Reality Social, once more.

He stated he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran after virtually six weeks of bombing.

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Quickly after, Iranian Overseas Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed the ceasefire on X, giving a world on edge an opportunity to breathe once more.

Past the very fact of the ceasefire, a lot stays unclear. Trump claimed Iran would permit unimpeded transit by way of the Strait of Hormuz whereas Araghchi stated passage by way of the waterway would must be executed underneath the auspices of the Iranian armed forces. Different key variations rapidly emerged: Was Lebanon included within the ceasefire? Has the US agreed to permit Iran to pursue uranium enrichment? Has Trump agreed to a 10-point Iranian record of calls for or accepted that merely as a dialog starter?

However there additionally was a typical glue that sure each Trump’s assertion and Araghchi’s assertions: acknowledgement of Pakistan’s central position because the mediator that managed to influence warring nations deeply distrustful of one another again to the negotiating desk.

Trump stated he agreed to the ceasefire “based mostly on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Subject Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan”, including that they’d “requested that I maintain off the damaging drive being despatched tonight to Iran”.

Araghchi was much more profuse in his reward for Pakistan. “On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I categorical gratitude and appreciation for his pricey brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Subject Marshal Munir for his or her tireless efforts to finish the warfare within the area,” he stated in a press release, including that Iran had accepted the ceasefire “in response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif”.

Sharif, who had publicly referred to as on the US and Iran to just accept a ceasefire a short while earlier than, posted once more 90 minutes later, highlighting what could also be Pakistan’s most vital diplomatic achievement in years.

“With the best humility, I’m happy to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the US of America, together with their allies, have agreed to an instantaneous ceasefire in all places together with Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY,” he wrote, inviting each delegations to Islamabad on Friday “to additional negotiate for a conclusive settlement to settle all disputes”.

By Wednesday afternoon, Sharif had spoken instantly with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian too. Formal talks had been anticipated to start in Islamabad on Friday with a US delegation that would probably be led by Vice President JD Vance, accompanied by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who had beforehand been engaged in dialogue with Iran earlier than the warfare.

The warfare, which started on February 28 when the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes that killed Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei and struck Iran’s army and nuclear infrastructure, has killed greater than 2,000 individuals in Iran in 5 weeks, disrupted roughly a fifth of the world’s oil provides and threatened to attract in regional powers.

That it has been paused, even briefly, is the results of weeks of painstaking diplomacy that few believed Pakistan might ship.

Early strikes and a balancing act

Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement started virtually instantly after the primary US-Israeli assaults of the warfare, largely behind the scenes.

When the primary strikes hit Tehran, Overseas Minister Ishaq Dar, who can also be deputy prime minister, was in Saudi Arabia, attending a gathering of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Inside hours, Pakistan’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs issued a press release, and Dar referred to as Araghchi to convey solidarity.

By March 3, Dar was addressing the nation’s Senate, outlining Pakistan’s place. “Pakistan is able to facilitate dialogue between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad,” he advised lawmakers.

At dwelling, in the meantime, protests erupted. In Karachi, demonstrators tried to storm the US consulate on March 1, leaving not less than 10 individuals useless.

Pakistan’s Shia Muslim inhabitants, estimated at 15 to twenty % of the nation’s roughly 250 million individuals, was watching carefully. As sectarian tensions rose, Munir summoned Shia clerics to Rawalpindi and warned that violence inside Pakistan wouldn’t be tolerated.

On the identical time, Islamabad was coping with a number of pressures. It remained engaged in what officers described as an “open warfare” towards the Afghan Taliban. It was additionally grappling with rising gas prices because of disruptions to transport within the Strait of Hormuz and issues over remittances from Pakistani staff in Gulf states.

On March 12, Sharif travelled to Jeddah with Munir to fulfill Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, expressing “full solidarity” whereas urging restraint towards mounting Iranian assaults towards Gulf international locations.

It was a fragile balancing act. Pakistan needed to keep its mutual defence pact with Riyadh, signed in September, with out being drawn right into a direct confrontation with Iran, its southwesterly neighbour with which it shares an almost 1,000km (620-mile) border.

Qamar Cheema, govt director of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute, stated Pakistan’s early condemnation of the US-Israeli strikes proved essential.

“When Pakistan condemned American strikes,” he advised Al Jazeera, “that was the place Pakistan gained over the Iranians as properly. This position as a world peacemaker is the results of private diplomatic funding in Iran and the safety of worldwide regulation.”

Masood Khan, a former Pakistan ambassador to the United Nations and the US, stated regional actors had been searching for “reliability, impartiality, consistency, restraint and deliverables”.

“We match the invoice and delivered on all counts,” Khan advised Al Jazeera. “We didn’t search strategic opportunism. We earned their belief.”

Conflict escalates as diplomacy deepens

On the night time of March 16-17, Israeli strikes killed Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme Nationwide Safety Council, and, since Khamenei’s dying, probably the most highly effective figures in Tehran.

On March 18, Israeli jets struck South Pars, the world’s largest pure gasfield, which Iran shares with Qatar and which accounts for roughly 70 % of Iran’s home fuel manufacturing.

The assault triggered a brand new wave of Iranian retaliation on Gulf vitality infrastructure, sending oil and fuel costs hovering.

Towards this backdrop, Dar arrived in Riyadh on March 18 for a gathering of 12 overseas ministers convened by Saudi Arabia.

The gathering produced a joint assertion condemning Israeli actions. Turkiye and Pakistan resisted harsher language that would have undermined Islamabad’s credibility with Tehran, based on officers conscious of the deliberations in Riyadh.

It was in Riyadh {that a} quadrilateral mechanism additionally took form, bringing collectively Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt.

Betul Dogan-Akkas, assistant professor of worldwide relations at Ankara College, stated the format emerged partly from divisions inside Gulf diplomacy. Whereas some Gulf international locations, such because the United Arab Emirates, had been by late March more and more dropping persistence with Iran’s assaults and elevating the prospects of hitting again, others, whereas additionally upset with Iran, had been nonetheless pushing for de-escalation.

“The intra-GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] disagreements over a ceasefire and a diplomatic dialogue with Iran created the necessity for precisely that type of actor,” Dogan-Akkas advised Al Jazeera, including that Pakistan’s ties with each side made it a pure alternative for a mediator.

From March 22 to 23, officers confirmed that Munir spoke on to Trump. The US president had already introduced a five-day pause on strikes focusing on Iranian vitality infrastructure by then, signalling he was open to a diplomatic exit.

On March 23, Pakistan formally provided to host talks. Sharif echoed the supply publicly hours afterward X, tagging Trump, Araghchi and Witkoff.

Preliminary reactions had been combined. Studies steered talks might happen in Islamabad inside days with Vance, Witkoff and Kushner named as doable members of a US delegation.

Iran, nonetheless, denied that negotiations had been underneath manner whereas the White Home sought to dampen hypothesis. “The US is not going to negotiate by way of the press,” White Home spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt stated.

On March 26, Dar confirmed that the US had shared a 15-point proposal with Iran through Pakistan. It demanded commitments on Iran’s nuclear programme, limits on its ballistic missiles and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran rejected the proposal and responded with a 10-point counteroffer, demanding an finish to hostilities, sanctions aid, reparations, recognition of its sovereignty over the strait and the withdrawal of US forces from the area.

The positions remained far aside. However the truth that each proposals handed by way of Islamabad underscored Pakistan’s central position.

On March 29, the overseas ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt reconvened in Islamabad. Earlier than the assembly, Sharif held a prolonged name with Pezeshkian, his second in 5 days.

After the talks, Dar travelled to Beijing, reflecting China’s rising involvement. He met Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi, and the 2 sides outlined a five-point initiative that included a ceasefire, early dialogue, civilian safety, restoration of transport by way of the Strait of Hormuz and a bigger UN position. On Tuesday, Trump confirmed that China appeared to have performed a task in pushing Iran in the direction of talks.

Some critics have described Pakistan’s position as that of a messenger, however Ishtiaq Ahmad, professor emeritus of worldwide relations at Quaid-i-Azam College in Islamabad, rejected that notion.

“A messenger transmits, however Pakistan formed the sequencing, timing and framing of proposals,” he advised Al Jazeera. “It had leverage with all sides.”

Dogan-Akkas stated Tehran’s alternative of Pakistan as mediator was deliberate.

“I consider it’s a strategic option to not venture a robust center energy with a US army base because the mediator however to have one other regional nation convey the message,” she stated.

The Munir issue

Central to Pakistan’s position was its military chief, Munir.

His relationship with Trump dates again to early final 12 months when Pakistan arrested the alleged perpetrator of the Abbey Gate bombing in Kabul in 2021, which occurred as 1000’s of Afghans tried to flee after the Taliban takeover. 13 American service members had been killed in that assault.

However their relationship really took root after the transient battle between Pakistan and India in Could when Trump publicly claimed credit score for brokering a ceasefire, a declare acknowledged by Pakistan however rejected by India.

That episode opened a direct channel between Munir and the White Home. He has since visited Washington, DC, twice, and Trump has publicly praised him on a number of events.

Pakistan additionally maintained connections with figures near the Trump administration, together with by way of enterprise engagements involving Witkoff’s household.

Trump himself acknowledged Pakistan’s ties with Iran, telling reporters that Pakistanis “know Iran very properly, higher than most,” after internet hosting Munir for an unprecedented lunch in June.

Nonetheless, Ahmad cautioned towards overstating the non-public dimension.

“The private equation helped speed up decision-making at a vital second, however the mediation was not constructed on personalities alone,” he advised Al Jazeera.

“It rested on institutional alignment between Pakistan’s civil and army management and on sustained engagement with Washington over the previous 12 months. Even when personalities shift, the channel Pakistan has constructed is now institutionalised,” he stated.

Cheema argued that the calculus was additionally structural.

“Trump understands that in all the Muslim world, that is the one nuclear-capable nation, and it will probably change the course of historical past,” he advised Al Jazeera, referring to Pakistan.

Countdown to a ceasefire

It was on Sunday on the Christian vacation of Easter when tensions peaked. As Pope Leo XIV referred to as for peace from the Vatican, Trump issued a stark warning on Reality Social.

“Tuesday shall be Energy Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in a single, in Iran,” he wrote, threatening to explode all of Iran’s bridges and energy services if it didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran dismissed the remarks, however behind the scenes, Pakistani officers intensified their diplomatic efforts.

By Monday, Pakistan had put ahead a two-phase ceasefire proposal with Munir in touch with Vance, Witkoff and Araghchi.

Trump initially rejected the plan. He set a ultimate deadline of 8pm Washington, DC, time on Tuesday (midnight GMT) and, hours earlier than it expired, warned of catastrophic penalties.

“An entire civilization will die tonight, by no means to be introduced again once more,” he posted. “I don’t need that to occur, but it surely most likely will.”

In keeping with officers, Munir continued participating each side within the ultimate hours, at the same time as a lot of the diplomacy remained out of public view, till Sharif’s public attraction got here with about 5 hours remaining.

The breakthrough adopted shortly after.

As Trump introduced the ceasefire and Iran confirmed it, the fast influence was seen.

Oil costs dropped by 16 %. The Strait of Hormuz was set to reopen for the primary time in 5 weeks. And Islamabad was able to turn into the centre of diplomatic exercise.

What comes subsequent?

The momentary ceasefire is just not a peace deal. Iran’s Supreme Nationwide Safety Council described it as a victory whereas warning that “our palms are on the set off.”

Key variations remained unresolved, and expectations for the upcoming talks are cautious.

Regardless of Sharif’s declare that Lebanon was included, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s workplace stated the association doesn’t cowl Lebanon, and Israeli assaults there on Wednesday killed dozens of individuals and wounded tons of.

Nonetheless, analysts stated Pakistan’s position marks a big shift.

A rustic that was not on the desk for talks that resulted within the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or the Abraham Accords has now positioned itself on the centre of a serious diplomatic effort.

“That is the primary time Pakistan has concurrently managed lively battle mediation between two adversaries underneath ongoing army escalation with out direct contact between them,” Ahmad stated.

Dogan-Akkas provided a extra cautious evaluation, noting that Pakistan doesn’t have a protracted historical past of mediation in contrast with international locations corresponding to Kuwait, Oman or Qatar.

The end result, she stated, displays Pakistan’s ties within the Gulf and its bettering relationship with Washington slightly than a deeply institutionalised mediation position.

When Pakistan quietly facilitated US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s secret journey to Beijing in 1971, its position remained unacknowledged for years.

This time, recognition got here virtually instantly, from each Washington and Tehran.

“Our effort this 12 months is a continuation of the facilitation we undertook between the US and Iran in 2025,” Khan, the previous envoy, stated.

“However the stakes this time had been very excessive. We didn’t need to see the richest bloc of the Muslim world decimated nor the world pushed in the direction of a wider warfare.”

He added a word of warning.

“No relationships are, nonetheless, assured in perpetuity. Have a look at the Trump-Modi bonhomie within the first Trump administration and its unravelling now,” he stated, referring to the nice and cozy friendship between the US president and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which seems to have cooled throughout Trump’s second time period.

Even so, he argued, Pakistan has already secured a long-lasting achieve.

“Whereas final success will rely upon the result of the method, nonetheless, even at this preliminary stage, Pakistan has already carved a distinct segment for itself in diplomatic chronicles,” Khan stated.