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March Insanity students might debate this, however it’s extensively accepted that there are two varieties of NCAA event Cinderellas: 1) The 13-16 seed that pulls off a primary spherical stunner and sometimes makes it to a Candy 16 or past, and a couple of) The 8-12 seed (particularly from a mid-major convention) that makes a run all the best way to a regional closing or Ultimate 4.
There are many choices on this yr’s discipline that match one of many two descriptions. Let’s have a look at the six with the most effective alternative to make good on their Cinderella potential.
1. Samford
The complete nation is about to get a briefing on “Bucky Ball” this week.
The time period comes from Samford head coach Bucky McMillan, who’s in his fourth season with the Bulldogs. McMillan has principally spent his complete life within the Birmingham space, and was employed at Samford in 2020 after a profitable 12-year stint as the top coach at Mountain Brook Excessive College. He had by no means spent a second as a university head coach or assistant.
The gamble has paid off in a significant approach. McMillan has been named the Southern Convention’s Coach of the 12 months in every of the final three seasons, and this yr he has the Bulldogs within the NCAA event for simply the third time ever and the primary time since 2000.
Don’t be shocked if that isn’t the place this Samford crew’s story ends.
A part of “Bucky Ball” is urgent for a full 40 minutes. Off makes, off misses, off turnovers, off the whole lot. That’s not precisely a great matchup for a Kansas crew that’s coping with accidents to its two star gamers.
Need extra proof to help the upset decide? Samford shoots a ton of threes and it makes a ton of threes. The Bulldogs are a hitting at a 39.3 p.c clip from past the arc, the eighth-best mark of any crew in Division-I.
It sounds unusual to say out loud, however Samford over Kansas is a really dwell shot.
2. Oregon
Dana Altman’s Oregon Geese are coming off per week through which they gained the Pac-12 event, understanding that it was their solely path to the NCAA event. The final time that occurred was 2019, when Oregon was awarded a 12-seed within the Huge Dance and superior all the best way to the Candy earlier than narrowly falling to eventual nationwide champion Virginia.
Historical past may very simply repeat itself this week.
The Geese are an 11-seed with a reasonably pleasant first spherical matchup in opposition to a South Carolina crew that has overachieved all season. Win that one and a matchup in opposition to Altman’s old fashioned, Creighton, could possibly be ready in spherical two.
Nobody flips disappointment on its head fairly like Altman. The final 3 times his Geese have returned to the NCAA event after a yr or two of lacking out, he’s taken them to the event’s second weekend. With talks in latest weeks about him needing to retire or the varsity needing to maneuver in a distinct path, it feels much more probably that this could possibly be per week the place forces the narrative to do a 180.
3. James Madison
It’s time for a 12-seed revival.
The 12 over 5 has been America’s favourite first spherical upset decide for some time now, however in recent times, the 12-line hasn’t lived as much as their historic hype. Simply two 12-seeds have made runs to the second weekend of the event over the past decade, and within the 68-team period (since 2011), there have been simply as many No. 15 seeds to make the Candy 16 as No. 12s (4).
Principally, 12-seeds want a lift. Enter James Madison.
Each Ultimate 4 however one since 2012 has featured no less than one crew seeded seventh or worse. I believe the Dukes have a very probability to be that crew this yr.
The South Area has mega “may collapse rapidly and dramatically” potential.
High-seeded Houston has been rock stable for many of this season, however is coming off of an eye-opening (in all of the fallacious methods) 69-41 loss to Iowa State within the Huge 12 event title recreation. Second-seeded Marquette performed the complete Huge East event with out star level guard Tyler Kolek, who additionally missed the ultimate three video games of the common season with an indirect harm. Third-seeded Kentucky epitomizes the outdated cliche of “can beat anybody within the event and lose to anybody within the event. And fourth-seeded Duke has been so disenchanted by its play in its final two video games, that Blue Satan gamers reportedly went the notorious “gamers solely assembly” route after their fast return residence from the NCAA event.
James Madison is 31-3. They opened their season with a real highway victory over a Michigan State crew that’s within the discipline as a 9-seed. They shoot the ball effectively, they’ve guards who maintain the ball effectively, and so they defend effectively.
If they will get previous Wisconsin, this could possibly be a crew that sees the world burning round them and takes full benefit.
4. South Dakota State
Look, a 15 has crushed a 2 in three straight NCAA tournaments, so it could really feel fallacious to have a listing like this with out that includes no less than one 15-seed, proper?
I like this Iowa State crew and I like T.J. Otzelberger as a head coach, however for weeks now, the Cyclones have matched the statistical profile of previous well-seeded groups which have flamed out early within the NCAA event. I do know they rolled to the Huge 12 event title, I do know the speak round them is about how they need to have been the No. 5 general seed, I do know … I’m simply sayin’.
Moreover, there have been 23 No. 2 seeds in event historical past that began the season unranked and entered the event ranked within the prime 10. Fifteen of these 23 groups (together with Marquette final season) have did not make it to the Candy 16. One crew suits that description this yr: Iowa State.
That is South Dakota State’s seventh NCAA event look since 2012. It’s a program that expects to be right here. The Jackrabbits, like the opposite little guys featured on this record, shoot the ball extraordinarily effectively (36.2 p.c from three as a crew, Fiftieth-best in D-I). They’re additionally coming into March Insanity driving the nation’s fifth-longest successful streak at eight straight video games.
Regardless of all their success, SDSU has by no means gained a recreation within the NCAA event. Everybody on the planet exterior of New England thought they have been going to beat Windfall two years in the past, and it didn’t occur. Possibly they simply wanted extra of a component of shock on their facet.
5. Charleston
Like South Dakota State, Charleston isn’t fairly as well-regarded as they have been the final time they made the NCAA event two seasons in the past.
The Cougars are 27-7 and have gained 12 straight video games — the nation’s second-longest successful streak — however they don’t have any wins over groups within the NCAA event or groups ranked within the prime 100 on KenPom. What they do have is a head coach in Pat Kelsey who’s extensively thought to be one of many brightest younger stars within the sport, and an erratic first spherical opponent in Alabama who appears to scream first spherical upset … or 35-point first spherical rout.
The metrics have beloved this Alabama crew all season lengthy, however the Crimson Tide’s play, particularly of late, has made lots of people surprise why.
Alabama has 11 losses, essentially the most of any crew seeded on the highest 4 traces. They’ve misplaced 4 of their final six, and have allowed over 100 factors in three of these 4 losses. On the flip facet, they’ve additionally scored 100 factors or extra in 4 of their final 9 video games.
If ‘Bama is enjoying its A or A- recreation, there’s not a lot Charleston goes to have the ability to do about it. If ‘Bama is enjoying its C or C- recreation, the Cougars completely have the expertise, the self-discipline and the teaching to take full benefit.
6. Drake
A ten-seed doesn’t actually match the “Cinderella” moniker … except it’s a crew (particularly a mid-major) making a run to a regional closing or past. Drake can with out query be that crew.
Whereas everybody was centered on Indiana State for the final month, the Bulldogs is perhaps poised to be the Missouri Valley crew everybody winds up remembering from this season.
They’ve a bon-a-fide star in Tucker DeVries (coach Darian DeVries’ son), who has been the MVC Participant of the 12 months every of the final two seasons. He’s completely ok to have a kind of Wally Szczerbiak two-week runs that everybody remembers endlessly.
The Bulldogs are within the nation’s prime 40 in just about each offensive stat that issues, they’re stable defensively, they’re probably the greatest rebounding groups within the nation, and maybe most significantly, they appear to have a positive draw.
They might in all probability want another person to maintain UConn for them within the prime half of the South Area, however that occurred, Drake could possibly be this yr’s Florida Atlantic.
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