Trump’s First 100 Days Mark Worst Stock Market Start Since Nixon Era
President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office saw the worst stock market performance at the start of a presidential term since the 1970s. From Inauguration Day on January 20 through April 25, the S&P 500 dropped 7.9%, making it the second-worst 100-day showing for a president since Richard Nixon’s second term, according to data from CFRA Research. Back in 1973, Nixon faced a 9.9% market drop after implementing economic measures to fight inflation, which contributed to the 1973–1975 recession. Nixon would later resign in 1974 amid the Watergate scandal.
Historically, the S&P 500 tends to rise an average of 2.1% in a president’s first 100 days, based on data from 1944 to 2020. Trump’s sharp decline stands in stark contrast to the market optimism that followed his election victory in November. At that time, investor hopes for tax cuts and deregulation helped drive the S&P 500 up 3.7% between Election Day and Inauguration Day.
However, the post-election rally quickly lost momentum as Trump shifted focus to other campaign promises that had previously been downplayed by markets. Chief among them was his aggressive trade policy stance, which stoked fears of inflation and a potential recession. The sell-off intensified in April, when the S&P 500 plunged 10% in just two days after Trump announced new “reciprocal” tariffs. Although he later offered a 90-day reprieve for renegotiations, easing some concerns, market volatility remained high.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, commented, “Everyone’s looking for this bottom here… I’m still thinking it’s a bear market rally, a near-term bounce kind of thing. I’m not convinced we’re out of the woods yet, with the lack of clarity and continuing uncertainty in Washington.”
As of Friday, the S&P 500 had fallen to 5,525.21 from a high of 6,144.15 in February, wiping out all gains made since the election. With two trading days remaining before the official 100-day mark on Tuesday, Trump still has a slim chance to improve the record. A late rally could bring the decline closer to the 6.9% drop seen during George W. Bush’s first 100 days in 2001 — currently the third-worst start on record.
