The Oklahoma City Thunder dominated the regular season with consistency and momentum. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers have surged through the playoffs as the most electrifying team of the past month.
Now, their paths converge in the NBA Finals.
When Game 1 tips off Thursday in Oklahoma City, it marks the end of two long waits — 12 years since the Thunder last reached the Finals, and a 25-year gap for the Pacers. Oklahoma City is aiming for its first championship since the franchise moved from Seattle in 2008. Indiana, though rich in ABA history with three titles between 1970 and 1973, is still chasing its first NBA championship since joining the league in the 1976 merger.
The Thunder are led by newly crowned MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Pacers ride the leadership of standout guard Tyrese Haliburton. Both teams reflect the evolution of today’s NBA — where success comes not only from star power, but from rosters built on depth, versatility, and cohesion.
Here’s a look at the key players, storylines, and matchups that could shape the outcome of the 2025 NBA Finals.
Beyond the Stars: Who’s the Most Important Player in the Series Not Named Shai or Tyrese?
Rohan Nadkarni:
By the end of Indiana’s series against the Knicks, Andrew Nembhard had gotten so under Jalen Brunson’s skin that Brunson headbutted him in Game 6. Can Nembhard do the same to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the league MVP? So far, no one has found a way to slow him down this postseason.
Indiana can’t simply rely on pushing the pace, because the Thunder thrive in transition, too. If the Pacers want a real shot, they’ll need Nembhard — and potentially Aaron Nesmith, if he’s healthy after his ankle injury — to disrupt SGA’s rhythm. That defensive effort could be the Pacers’ biggest X-factor.
Andrew Greif:
The real swing factor could be which team’s second option steps up. Both teams will be focused on containing the stars — Haliburton for OKC and Gilgeous-Alexander for Indiana — which means players like Pascal Siakam and Jalen Williams will be critical. Siakam, notably, has already succeeded in this role during Toronto’s 2019 title run. Williams, while emerging, is still proving himself on this stage.
What Do the Thunder Need to Do to Win?
Nadkarni:
Just be themselves. That might sound too simple, but the Thunder have been one of the league’s most complete teams all year. They finished top-three in both offense (third) and defense (first) during the regular season — no other team matched that.
But execution in clutch moments will be essential. Indiana has made a habit of pulling off late-game rallies throughout the playoffs. If OKC lets its guard down in the fourth quarter, the Pacers will pounce. The Thunder need to keep their foot on the gas from start to finish.
Greif:
Force turnovers — because when they do, the numbers are staggering. Oklahoma City went 43-4 this season when recording 10 or more steals. They led the league in steals per game and have upped that rate in the playoffs.
Indiana, on the other hand, prides itself on playing fast without being reckless. The Pacers had the third-fewest turnovers per game during the season. But when their offense gets disrupted, their chances drop significantly. OKC’s aggressive, swarming defense is built to test that discipline.
What Do the Pacers Need to Do to Win?
Nadkarni:
Run, run, run. Indiana’s half-court offense, while creative, isn’t going to consistently break down Oklahoma City’s defense — especially not when it’s set. OKC has been smothering defensively all postseason, and when locked in, they’re arguably the best defensive team of the decade.
So Indiana needs to push the pace every chance it gets. That means scoring in transition off turnovers and even off made baskets, much like they did against the Knicks. If they’re forced into a slow, half-court battle, they’ll be in serious trouble.
Greif:
Find ways to free up Haliburton — in ways Minnesota couldn’t for Anthony Edwards in the West Finals. Edwards is an elite young scorer, but the Thunder clamped him down with their deep, versatile defense. OKC has elite defenders at every level: Lu Dort (first-team All-Defense), Jalen Williams (second-team), Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Hartenstein protecting the rim.
If Haliburton gets bottled up, Indiana’s offense suffers across the board. To win, the Pacers must create opportunities for Haliburton in transition and secondary actions — capitalizing on turnovers and quick rebounds. That’s where they excelled against the Knicks, outscoring them by 79 points off turnovers and 58 on fast breaks.
Who Wins the Series?
Nadkarni:
Thunder in five. The Pacers are unpredictable, creative, and coached by a master tactician in Rick Carlisle. But Oklahoma City is simply too dominant. Outside of Denver’s Nikola Jokić, no one has truly tested them this postseason.
There’s a clear talent gap that’s hard to ignore. Over nearly 100 games, OKC has been more consistent, more efficient, and more complete. I’d love to see this go long, but based on how they’ve played, it’s hard to predict anything but a short series.
Greif:
Thunder in six. These teams met back in late March, with Indiana on a hot streak and OKC missing both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Still, the Thunder won by 21.
It was just one game, but it hinted at the deeper talent and depth OKC brings to the table. The Pacers have had a gutsy playoff run, but the Thunder’s young core is growing rapidly — and they’re ready. This series will be competitive, but Oklahoma City has the edge where it matters most.
