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Turkey’s push into Iraq risks deeper conflict

SARARO, Iraq, Jan 31 (Reuters) – Looming over the abandoned village of Sararo in northern Iraq, three Turkish army outposts break the skyline, a part of an incursion that pressured the residents to flee final yr after days of shelling.

The outposts are simply a number of the dozens of recent army bases Turkey has established on Iraqi soil up to now two years because it steps up its decades-long offensive towards Kurdish militants sheltered within the distant and rugged area.

“When Turkey first got here to the realm, they arrange small transportable tents, however within the spring, they arrange outposts with bricks and cement,” Sararo’s mayor Abdulrahman Hussein Rashid stated in December throughout a go to to the village, the place shell casings and shrapnel nonetheless litter the bottom.

“They’ve drones and cameras working 24/7. They know the whole lot that is happening,” he advised Reuters, as drones buzzed overhead within the mountainous terrain 5 km from the frontier.

Turkey’s advances throughout the more and more depopulated border of Iraqi Kurdistan appeal to little international consideration in comparison with its incursions into Syria or the battle towards Islamic State, however the escalation dangers additional destabilising a area the place overseas powers have intervened with impunity, analysts say.

Turkey may change into additional embroiled if its new Iraqi bases come below sustained assault, whereas its rising presence might also embolden Iran to increase army motion in Iraq towards teams it accuses of fomenting unrest at residence, Kurdish officers say.

Former secretary basic for Kurdistan’s Peshmerga forces, Jabar Manda, stated Turkey had 29 outposts in Iraq till 2019 however the quantity has mushroomed as Ankara tries to cease the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration (PKK) launching assaults by itself territory.

“12 months after yr the outposts have been growing after the escalation of battles between Turkish forces and the PKK,” he stated, estimating the present quantity at 87, largely in a strip of border territory about 150 km lengthy (95 miles) and 30 km deep.

“In these outposts there are tanks and armoured automobiles,” stated Manda, who’s now a safety analyst in Sulaimaniya. “Helicopters provide the outposts each day.”


A Kurdish official, who declined to be named, additionally stated Turkey now had about 80 outposts in Iraq. One other Kurdish official stated at the least 50 had been constructed within the final two years and that Turkey’s presence was turning into extra everlasting.

Requested to touch upon its bases in Iraq, Turkey’s defence ministry stated its operations there have been consistent with article 51 of the U.N. Constitution, which provides member states the best to self defence within the occasion of assaults.

“Our battle towards terrorism in northern Iraq is carried out in coordination and shut cooperation with the Iraqi authorities,” the ministry stated in a press release, which didn’t deal with questions in regards to the figures cited by Kurdish officers.

Turkey’s presence in northern Iraq, which has lengthy been exterior the direct management of the Baghdad authorities, dates again to the Nineties when former Iraqi chief Saddam Hussein let Turkish forces advance 5 km into the nation to battle the PKK.

Since then, Turkey has constructed a major presence, together with one base at Bashiqa 80 km inside Iraq, the place it says Turkish troops have been a part of a world mission to coach and equip Iraqi forces to battle Islamic State.

Turkey stated it labored to keep away from civilian casualties by its coordination with Iraqi authorities.

A report revealed in August by a coalition of NGOs, Finish Cross-Border Bombing, stated at the least 98 civilians have been killed between 2015 and 2021. The Worldwide Disaster Group, which gave an identical civilian demise toll, stated 1,180 PKK militants have been killed between 2015 and 2023.

In accordance with an official with Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Authorities (KRG), the battle has additionally emptied at the least 800 villages since 2015, when a ceasefire between Turkey and the PKK broke down, driving 1000’s of individuals from their properties.


Past the humanitarian influence, Turkey’s incursion dangers widening the battle by giving carte blanche to regional rival Iran to step up intelligence operations inside Iraq and take its personal army motion, Kurdish officers say.

Tehran has already fired missiles at bases of Kurdish teams it accuses of involvement in protests towards its restrictions on girls, displacing a whole lot of Iranian Kurds and killing some.

Iran didn’t reply to requests for remark.

Professional-Iranian militias in Iraq even have a pretext to reply to Turkey’s presence, analysts say, elevating the prospect of escalation between Turkish troops and teams moreover the PKK.

Hamdi Malik, a specialist on Iraqi Shi’ite militias on the Washington Institute, stated pro-Iranian teams equivalent to Liwa Ahrar al-Iraq (Free Individuals of Iraq Brigade) and Ahrar Sinjar (Free Individuals of Sinjar) rebranded themselves final yr because the resistance towards the Turkish presence.

In accordance with a Washington Institute report, assaults on Turkish army services in Iraq elevated from a mean of 1.5 strikes per thirty days at the beginning of 2022 to seven in April.

If the teams, that are deeply hostile to Washington, step up operations that may additionally undermine the affect of the USA and its 2,000 troops in Iraq, stated Mustafa Gurbuz, a non-resident fellow on the Arab Heart Washington.

“Turkey is underestimating the power of opposition and the truth that these services will change into targets sooner or later and extra in order hostilities enhance,” stated Sajad Jiyad, Baghdad-based analyst for The Century Basis, a U.S. think-tank.


Northern Iraq’s fragmented politics imply that neither the federal authorities in Baghdad nor the KRG regional authority are sturdy sufficient to problem Turkey’s presence – or to fulfill Ankara’s aim of containing the PKK themselves.

The Baghdad authorities has complained about Ankara’s incursions however has little authority within the primarily Kurdish north, whereas the area’s ruling Kurdistan Democratic Celebration (KDP) doesn’t have the firepower to problem the PKK, regardless of seeing it as a potent and populist rival.

The KDP has traditionally cooperated with Turkey however has restricted affect over a neighbour which wields far higher army and financial clout.

“We ask all overseas army teams – together with the PKK – to not drag the Kurdistan Area into any form of conflicts or tensions,” KRG spokesman Jotiar Adil stated.

“The PKK are the principle motive that pushed Turkey to enter our territories within the Kurdistan Area. Due to this fact, we predict the PKK ought to depart,” he stated. “We aren’t a facet on this long-standing battle and we’ve got no plans to be on any facet.”

Iraqi Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani advised Reuters the battle between Turkey and the PKK was a matter of concern, however much less urgent than the menace from Islamic State.

Hariam Mahmoud, a number one determine within the Kurdistan Liberation Motion, a civilian opposition group in Iraq influenced by the concepts of jailed PKK chief Abdullah Ocalan, stated regardless of how a lot Turkey squeezes them they’ll proceed to withstand.

“In our opinion, that is an occupation and preventing resistance is a legit proper,” stated Mahmoud, who lives in Garmiyan district south of Sulaimaniya.

Civilians, in the meantime, proceed to pay the worth.

Ramzan Ali, 72, was irrigating his subject in Hirure just a few km from Sararo in 2021, when he heard an enormous blast. The following factor he remembers is being on the bottom coated in blood.

He stated a Turkish shell had crashed into his property – a daily incidence when Turkish troops reply to PKK assaults with artillery.

“I watched my life flash earlier than my eyes,” Ali stated within the city of Zakho, the place he’s nonetheless affected by shrapnel wounds. “I’m mad at each the PKK and Turkey. They’ve each wronged us.”

Reporting by Amina Ismail in Sararo, Ahmed Rasheed in Baghdad and Kawa Omar in Dohuk; Enhancing by Dominic Evans and David Clarke

Our Requirements: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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