“The [U.S. Naval Support Activity Bahrain] base and Fifth Fleet headquarters have been rendered largely inoperable for his or her unique features, with repairs estimated at $400 million… Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Daryl Caudle and different senior protection officers said that the Navy won’t return to full regular operations on the Bahrain facility anytime quickly…As a result of the Juffair surrounding space [to the U.S. Bahrain Navy facilities] is taken into account unsafe, [U.S. Navy] main logistical and port-call operations have been rerouted over 2,000 miles away to the Naval Help Facility Diego Garcia and different different hubs, inflicting vital resupply delays.”
That’s an excerpt from a 19-page Congressional Price range Workplace (CBO) report titled, Estimating the Value of Fight Operations In opposition to Iran, despatched to Congress September 15.
I learn the now-seven-week-old CBO report final week, and was shocked at how a lot new-to-me data it contained concerning the early days of the Iran warfare, and significantly Tehran’s early destruction of U.S. army infrastructure which, up-to-recently, had not had a lot publicity on this nation.
For instance, though the U.S. assaults together with Israel on Iran started earlier than daybreak February 28, 2026, there apparently was an absence of expectation for the scale of Iran counterattacks with missiles and drones that really occurred later that very same day, February 28, in Bahrain and at different U.S. bases in Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
And whereas the White Home and Pentagon repeatedly have described the destruction U.S. and Israeli forces have carried out to Iran’s army, there was as virtually no point out of what was occurring to the U.S. amenities.
In mid-September, the Protection Division (DoD) Inspector Normal (IG), as Lead IG, launched a report on Operation Epic Fury (OEF) — the warfare in opposition to Iran. The IG report discovered that “Iranian strikes broken and destroyed lots of of buildings and buildings at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan throughout the battle,” as of June 30, 2026, and the DoD had “$3.7 billion in gear losses, however [that] doesn’t embody prices for infrastructure repairs.”
The IG report later famous it “didn’t embody the price of army building for broken infrastructure in its estimate as a result of [DoD] has not decided what its future posture will probably be within the area, the way it will assemble its bases, and what number of the development prices Allies and companions will contribute.”
Alternatively, the IG report did say “harm to U.S. embassies, consulates, and different diplomatic amenities had already value the U.S. roughly $184 million.”
I ought to level out that the CBO September report, despatched to Congress at some point after the IG report was launched, famous that DoD had failed to offer to it, the CBO, with an estimate on the price of the harm to U.S. bases and amenities.
In truth, there nonetheless has but to be any publicly-released official DoD estimate of the price of harm to U.S. army bases and amenities primarily based on Iran’s assaults.
Nonetheless, Iran assaults in these first days of the warfare continued in a scale and period that appeared to have taken the U.S. authorities abruptly. For instance, it was not till March 2, the third day after assaults started, earlier than the Navy and the State Division ordered the evacuation of dependents from Bahrain.
The September CBO report mentioned, “Navy households and non-essential personnel have been evacuated [from Bahrain] in March 2026, and stay displaced throughout short-term housing, awaiting the eventual retrieval of non-public belongings left behind…[and] Evacuated households have confronted added pressure as army management famous that short-term evacuation monetary help is scheduled to conclude on November 30, 2026, although delivery private results is anticipated to take a number of extra months.”
Additionally indicating a shock from Iran’s army response, the DoD’s IG report famous, “Previous to OEF, Bahrain had been U.S. Navy Central’s essential logistics hub to maintain operations within the Persian Gulf area, USCENTCOM [U.S. Central Command] mentioned. Throughout main fight operations, Iran focused Bahrain with [drones] and ballistic missile strikes. USCENTCOM said that it initially shifted naval sustainment assets from Bahrain to alternate hubs.”
The IG Report added, “The institution of ample naval bases and help ports posed vital challenges earlier than and through OEF, arising from complexities and as a result of uncertainties with host nation entry permissions to make the most of ports for fleet resupply, USCENTCOM mentioned.”
For instance, the necessity to shift logistics help and infrastructure to Diego Garcia added 14-to-18 days for transporting materials by sea, in line with the IG report.
As for the U.S. Mixed Air and House Operations Heart (CAOC) at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the Air Pressure had since 2019 periodically performed assessments and short-term shifts of its operations to Shaw Air Pressure Base in South Carolina to display distributed command-and-control capabilities and diminished reliance on a single level of failure.
As reported in June by Air and House Forces Journal, personnel have been transferred away from Al Udeid earlier than February 28. Subsequently, when Iran weapons struck the COAC facility at Al Udeid Air Base within the early days of the warfare, operations have been already being run out of Shaw Air Pressure Base.
Then, there’s the already publicized, however apparently un-planned, heavy use of each offensive and defensive U.S. weaponry brought on by the Iran warfare.
For instance, the September CBO report estimated, “The price to interchange the munitions expended by means of August 1, 2026, is $21.7 billion: $7.3 billion for the land-attack cruise missiles, $13.1 billion for the missile protection interceptors, and $1.2 billion for different munitions. Changing these munitions has been the biggest single element of the prices incurred by DoD throughout the battle.”
CBO estimated that it “would in all probability take a minimum of 5 years” to interchange sure interceptors even at an elevated price of manufacturing.
An October 5, Congressional Analysis Service (CRS) report, U.S. Navy Operations In opposition to Iran’s Missile and Nuclear Packages, raises one other level price contemplating — whether or not the Trump planners understood the problem they confronted in attempting to disarm Iran.
The CRS report famous that President Trump on February 28, listed among the many OEF’s goals was destroying Iran’s missiles, and “[razing] their missile trade to the bottom.”
Nonetheless, as CRS reported following the preliminary U.S./Israeli assaults, “DIA [the Defense Intelligence Agency] assessed in April 2026 that Iran ‘retains 1000’s of missiles and one-way assault UAVs [drones] that may threaten U.S. and accomplice forces all through the area, regardless of degradations to its capabilities from each attrition and expenditure.’”
CRS additionally reported articles that mentioned “that Iran could have begun rebuilding army infrastructure, restoring entry to missile bases, and resuming missile manufacturing utilizing stockpiled elements. An Iranian official reportedly asserted in August that Iran has ample ‘stockpiles in our underground missile and drone cities’ to allow continued manufacturing.”
The CRS report instructed Congress think about directing the Pentagon to provide an “annual report on army energy of Iran,” together with a public model of that report.
Whereas coping with public reporting, I have to word the odd means DoD has been dealing with public disclosure of U.S. lifeless and wounded since February 28, a system clearly designed to decrease the numbers.
As a substitute of getting one class, there are two – one for the interval February 28-to-July 6, protecting OEF with 15 deaths and 417 wounded; the second from July 7-to-present in a second class, “abroad operations,” which lists eight deaths and 448 wounded.
The Trump administration rationale was {that a} short-term ceasefire or memorandum of understanding was reached to finish OEF and that combating resumed on July 7, after the sooner ceasefire collapsed.
Nonetheless, as Stars and Stripes reported final Thursday, “The Pentagon has revised the variety of U.S. troops who’ve died throughout operations associated to the warfare in opposition to Iran to 23… Moreover, 865 American service members have been wounded.”
Now we’re in a interval the place President Trump has threatened, after right this moment’s elections, to resume assaults on Iran. He has amassed a battle pressure that might carry it out. He has additionally warned allies within the area it might be coming.
The State Division has ordered nonessential authorities workers and their households to depart Saudi Arabia and made staffing changes or household departures throughout a number of diplomatic missions within the Center East.
However as I’ve indicated above, Iran, which has the biggest armed forces within the area, has a functionality to strike again, whether or not the Pentagon acknowledges that or not.
Iran has developed a protection trade and its personal army capabilities, together with in depth underground amenities, and dispersal of munitions inventories.
The amount of U.S. offensive and defensive ammunition used to date in opposition to Iran present that any U.S. renewing of assaults to pressure Tehran to just accept Washington’s phrases, wouldn’t be a day or two operation.
And maybe simply as vital to consider — given what Ukraine has proven — explosive drones will be launched towards targets 1000’s of miles away, exhibiting no nation is totally secure, regardless of how far its borders are from the enemy.
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