WASHINGTON — Democrats have flipped one final seat in California, giving Republicans a narrow majority in the House next year and leaving GOP leaders with even less margin for error as they try to advance President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.
Democrat Adam Gray defeated GOP Rep. John Duarte in a rematch in California’s 13th District in the Central Valley after weeks of ballot counting, NBC News projects. As a result, Republicans secured 220 House seats in the 2024 elections, while Democrats won 215. The GOP can lose only two votes on legislation in the next Congress if Democrats vote in opposition, leaving little room for absences, internal fighting, or vacancies.
Duarte told the Turlock Journal that he called Gray to concede on Tuesday evening.
Thanks to Gray’s victory, Democrats gained one seat in the House, flipping nine Republican-held seats, mainly in blue states, while Republicans flipped eight Democratic-held seats.
California alone accounted for three Democratic pickups: Democrats Derek Tran and George Whitesides defeated GOP Reps. Michelle Steel and Mike Garcia. Additionally, Democrats flipped three seats in New York and one in Oregon, gaining one seat each in Alabama and Louisiana due to new congressional maps.
Meanwhile, Republicans gained three seats in North Carolina thanks to the state’s new congressional map. They also defeated two Pennsylvania Democrats, Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright, along with Democratic lawmakers in Alaska and Colorado, and flipped an open seat in Michigan.
Campaigns and outside groups spent hundreds of millions of dollars on House races, with over $1.1 billion spent on ads from September through Election Day, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
Democratic campaigns and groups outspent their GOP counterparts in the fall, spending $662 million on ads in House races compared to Republicans’ $485 million.
The slim GOP majority highlights the close fight for the House this year, with operatives in both parties acknowledging that the recent redistricting process narrowed the battlefield by creating fewer competitive races. According to data from the NBC News Decision Desk, just over 40 seats — about 10% of the chamber — were decided by less than 5 percentage points.
While Democrats lost the House, Senate, and White House, their down-ballot candidates performed better than Vice President Kamala Harris.
Vulnerable Democratic incumbents in House races outperformed Harris by an average of 2.7 points, according to an initial analysis of county data from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, shared with NBC News. The analysis also found that Democratic candidates in competitive districts outperformed Harris in counties with lower levels of education and where the majority of registered voters are people of color.
Johnson’s obstacles
With Republicans controlling all the levers of power in Washington, they will have a rare opportunity in the new year to pass major policy priorities through budget “reconciliation” — an arcane process that allows the GOP to bypass filibusters and fast-track legislation without any Democratic votes in the Senate.
However, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., who is expected to be re-elected to the top job by his colleagues next month, and Republicans will face challenges in passing their reconciliation package due to the fragility of their House majority.
Trump and Republicans are eyeing the reconciliation package as a way to renew the tax cuts that Trump signed into law in 2017, which are set to expire next year. Other provisions under consideration include a tax exemption for income earned from tips — what Trump calls “no tax on tips” — and lifting the cap on the state and local tax deduction.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a Trump ally on the Appropriations and Judiciary committees, has urged colleagues to use reconciliation to pass border security legislation as Trump has vowed to launch “the largest deportation program in American history.”
Johnson faces further complications due to Trump’s selection of two sitting House Republicans for his Cabinet: Elise Stefanik of New York as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and Mike Waltz of Florida as national security adviser.
Additionally, Republicans will start the new Congress with one fewer lawmaker. Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned last month after Trump chose him as the next attorney general. Gaetz withdrew his name from consideration amid allegations of sexual misconduct and has said he does not plan to join the next Congress, despite winning re-election.
If Stefanik and Waltz resign simultaneously, Johnson will operate with just a one-seat majority: 217 to 215.
The Florida State Department has already announced the special election schedule to replace Gaetz and Waltz, with primaries set for Jan. 28 in the deep-red seats, followed by special elections on April 1.
Once Stefanik resigns, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has 10 days to declare a special election in New York, which must occur 70 to 80 days after the proclamation, according to state law.
