Two wins, two losses: What India, Pakistan have realized a yr after warfare | India-Pakistan Tensions Information

Islamabad, Pakistan – In Pakistan, Might started with streets in main cities dotted with banners and posters honouring the army management that, within the official telling, guided the nation’s defences and led the nation to victory within the four-day aerial warfare with India final yr.

On the Nur Khan Auditorium within the metropolis of Rawalpindi on Thursday, the Pakistan Air Power (PAF) held a ceremony marking its “achievements” in downing Indian jets. In Lahore on Friday night, a government-organised live performance on the metropolis’s Liberty Chowk celebrated the battle’s success in what Pakistan calls the “Day of the Battle of Reality”.

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However throughout the border, India, too, is celebrating what its authorities and army insist was a victory for them. On Thursday, Might 7, Prime Minister Narendra Modi modified his profile image on X to the official emblem of Operation Sindoor, India’s identify for the Might 2025 army operation in opposition to Pakistan, and urged each Indian to do the identical. “A yr in the past, our armed forces displayed unparalleled braveness, precision and resolve,” Modi wrote on X. “As we speak, we stay as steadfast as ever in our resolve to defeat terrorism and destroy its enabling ecosystem.”

Each governments put their militaries earlier than the cameras. At a information convention lasting greater than two hours in New Delhi, Air Marshal Awadhesh Kumar Bharti mentioned India had “destroyed 13 Pakistani plane” and “struck 11 airfields”.

In the meantime, in Rawalpindi, Lieutenant Normal Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, director basic of Inter-Companies Public Relations (ISPR), the media arm of Pakistan’s armed forces, advised reporters that the nation had defeated an enemy “5 occasions bigger than itself” and had proven solely “10 p.c” of its army potential. “We’re ready,” he mentioned. “If anybody desires to check us, they’re welcome to take action.”

Analysts, nonetheless, say that behind the general public claims of victory and the celebrations in each international locations, key questions stay about whether or not the South Asian neighbours have drawn classes, each from their respective beneficial properties within the battle and from the weaknesses uncovered throughout and after the preventing.

The ‘wins’ India, Pakistan are celebrating

On April 22, 2025, gunmen attacked vacationers in Indian-administered Kashmir’s Pahalgam, killing 26 civilians. India blamed the assault on Pakistan, an accusation Islamabad rejected.

India launched Operation Sindoor on Might 7, 2025, placing a number of websites deep inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. It insisted it was focusing on “terrorist” infrastructure, however Pakistani officers mentioned civilians bore the brunt of the assault. Pakistan retaliated with Operation Bunyan al-Marsoos.

Opposite to official narratives on either side, the four-day battle that adopted didn’t finish in a neat victory for both nation.

Pakistan can level to the aerial trade on the night time of Might 6-7. Its Chinese language-built J-10C jets shot down Indian plane, together with Rafales, through the opening part of the battle.

On the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in June 2025, India’s second chief of defence workers, Normal Anil Chauhan, admitted to jet losses on the primary day of the preventing. Air Marshal Bharti had framed it extra plainly days earlier: “Losses are part of fight.”

Pakistan additionally emerged with what many analysts noticed as a diplomatic and narrative benefit. It accepted US President Donald Trump’s assertion that he had introduced concerning the ceasefire that ended the warfare on Might 10, nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, and has, over the previous yr, emerged as a major diplomatic power, performing because the most important mediator of a ceasefire within the US warfare on Iran.

For its half, India may level to vital army outcomes. Its BrahMos long-range missiles struck a number of Pakistani airbases, together with Nur Khan in Rawalpindi and Bholari within the Sindh province.

India additionally used Israeli-made drones that penetrated so far as Karachi and Lahore, and it suspended the Indus Waters Treaty on April 23, 2025, a pact that governs river-water sharing between the neighbours. The choice carries penalties far past the army trade.

Whereas business satellite tv for pc imagery launched by Western corporations extensively documented harm at Pakistani army installations, the identical corporations, Maxar, now renamed Vantor, and Planet Labs, launched no imagery of the Indian army websites allegedly struck by Pakistan throughout or after the battle.

In the meantime, Pakistani losses had been subjected to open-source scrutiny, whereas Indian losses weren’t. Each readings of the battle include components of reality. But, neither is full.

The hole between the 2 narratives will not be merely rhetorical, say analysts. It has penalties for a way actually all sides is absorbing what the battle truly revealed, and the way significantly the duty of addressing real vulnerabilities is being taken.

Pakistan’s unresolved gaps

At Thursday’s information convention in Rawalpindi, Pakistan’s army provided its most detailed public account but of what it has finished to bolster its capabilities over the previous yr.

Lieutenant Normal Chaudhry introduced the formal operationalisation of Military Rocket Power Command (ARFC), which the army described as being “outfitted with fashionable know-how and able to focusing on the enemy with excessive precision from each path”.

The presentation unveiled a collection of newly inducted programs within the final 12 months: the Fatah-III supersonic cruise missile; the Fatah-IV, with a said vary of 750km (466 miles); and the Fatah-V, described as a 1,000km (621-mile) deep-strike rocket system.

“The Rocket Power was not created particularly to ‘resolve’ the BrahMos drawback,” mentioned Tughral Yamin, a defence analyst and former brigadier within the Pakistani military.

“Its objective was institutional and doctrinal: to streamline and speed up standard missile decision-making whereas sustaining a transparent separation from Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent structure.”

Muhammad Faisal, a Sydney-based defence and overseas coverage analyst, agreed with that distinction however pointed to the sensible implications.

“Pakistan now has credible and usable standard strike choices,” he advised Al Jazeera. “It is not going to cease India’s high-speed standoff strikes. However within the subsequent spherical, India may count on Pakistan’s standard cruise missile retaliation.”

Nevertheless, Adil Sultan, a former Pakistan Air Power commodore, cautioned that the ARFC remained a piece in progress.

“The rocket power appears to be nonetheless in its evolution part,” he mentioned, including that newer programs, such because the Fatah-III, seem to offer “a reputable response in opposition to BrahMos and different high-speed projectiles”.

Pakistan’s broader army procurement has continued in parallel. Islamabad raised its finances by 20 p.c, allocating 2.55 trillion Pakistani rupees ($9bn) for army expenditure, in response to finances paperwork offered by Minister of Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb in June final yr.

That included 704 billion rupees ($2.5bn) for tools and bodily property.

A 2025 report by the US-China Financial and Safety Evaluation Fee famous that Beijing had provided to promote Pakistan as much as 40 J-35A fifth-generation fighter jets, though no deliveries have but taken place.

In December 2025, Washington notified Congress of a proposed $686m bundle to improve Pakistan’s F-16 fleet, extending its operational life to 2040.

Christopher Clary, a political scientist on the College at Albany, cautioned in opposition to decoding the upgrades as an easy shift in functionality.

“We don’t know whether or not this can be only a ‘Crimson Queen’s race,’ the place either side race as quick as potential simply to remain in the identical relative place in opposition to each other”, he advised Al Jazeera, “or if one social gathering will draw back the following time round”.

Past the {hardware}

Regardless of these upgrades, Pakistan’s air defence posture stays its most uncovered vulnerability, analysts level out.

Its Chinese language-supplied HQ-9B surface-to-air missile system did not intercept the BrahMos missiles through the Might 2025 battle.

Islamabad, in response to Pakistani defence analyst Yamin, is now pursuing the longer-range HQ-19 ballistic missile defence system, with induction anticipated later in 2026.

Faisal, the Sydney-based analyst, described the Pakistani Air Power’s (PAF) opening efficiency on Might 7, 2025, as spectacular, however mentioned that the later phases of the battle uncovered vital weaknesses.

“The PAF’s efficiency within the first part of the battle was genuinely exceptional,” he mentioned. “It displayed each coherence and escalation self-discipline. Nevertheless, later BrahMos strikes on airbases depicted gaps in floor air defences.”

New weapons programs alone, Faisal argued, wouldn’t be sufficient.

“Pakistan should meet this problem via hardened shelters, dispersals, and pressing runway restore capacities to keep away from being incapacitated within the subsequent battle,” he mentioned.

The College at Albany’s Clary famous that the BrahMos missile’s fight debut had altered the strategic calculations for either side.

“The BrahMos had by no means been used earlier than in fight”, he mentioned, “and so its use in 2025 may have given Pakistani air defence planners, and the Chinese language producers that make lots of the Pakistani programs, a have a look at the know-how”.

Whether or not there are simple countermeasures, or whether or not coping with a hypersonic cruise missile like BrahMos stays past Pakistan’s present technological attain, continues to be unclear.

Yamin argued that the battle additionally underscored the diminishing worth of geography as strategic depth.

Strikes reached Nur Khan, Bholari and installations as far south as Sukkur.

“The battle demonstrated that geography alone now not offers strategic depth within the age of long-range precision weapons, drones, cyber capabilities, and satellite-guided programs,” he mentioned.

Faisal put the doctrinal implications extra instantly.

“Deep strikes into Lahore, Karachi, and Rawalpindi show that ‘geographic immunity’ has eroded,” he mentioned. “Doctrinally, Pakistan’s army is indicating preparation for standard strikes from each floor and sea-based platforms to strike the Indian heartland, even at its southern shores, removed from Pakistan.”

However that evaluation is sophisticated by fiscal realities. Islamabad elevated defence spending even because it minimize total federal expenditure by 7 p.c to adjust to its Worldwide Financial Fund mortgage programme.

In the meantime, India’s defence finances for 2025-26, in response to Indian finances paperwork, stands at roughly $78.7bn, almost 9 occasions Pakistan’s official allocation.

India’s quieter reckoning

India’s official posture because the battle has largely been one among vindication.

Praveen Donthi, a New Delhi-based analyst on the Worldwide Disaster Group, described it as an “opaque battle” between two nuclear-armed nations.

Alongside the army trade, he mentioned, a parallel warfare of misinformation was fought on-line.

“Such misinformation had surprisingly allowed for an fascinating finish, as either side may declare victory,” he advised Al Jazeera. “Neither facet desires to concede its losses.”

Second Chief of Defence Employees Chauhan’s remarks in Singapore stay the closest India has come to accountability on its plane losses. He mentioned India had misplaced plane, “rectified techniques” and returned “in giant numbers” to strike Pakistani airbases. However he had declined to specify what number of plane had been misplaced.

C Uday Bhaskar, a retired Indian Navy officer and director of the Society for Coverage Research in New Delhi, defended India’s reticence as operationally obligatory, noting that Operation Sindoor nonetheless stays lively, solely on pause per the federal government, in India’s framing.

However, he mentioned: “It will have been extra acceptable for a democracy like India if this assertion had been made in parliament by the defence minister,” he advised Al Jazeera.

The diplomatic fallout has additionally proved uncomfortable for New Delhi.

India insisted that the ceasefire that ended the warfare was settled bilaterally, rejecting repeated claims by Trump that he deserved credit score, at the same time as Pakistan publicly thanked the US president and nominated him for the Nobel Prize.

The distinction formed how the aftermath was interpreted internationally.

Pakistani Military Chief Discipline Marshal Asim Munir’s subsequent trajectory underscored the shift. In June final yr, Trump hosted him for a White Home lunch, the primary time a US president had privately obtained a Pakistani army chief with out civilian management current.

By April 2026, Munir’s world rise had taken him to Tehran as the primary regional army chief to journey there because the US and Israel launched warfare on Iran on February 28. He performed a central position within the April 8 ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, and has continued to play a outstanding mediatory position since.

In the meantime, India’s evolving doctrine, which treats main assaults as acts of warfare, carries dangers of its personal.

The Worldwide Disaster Group’s Donthi mentioned that New Delhi believes it has “known as Islamabad’s bluff over what it phrases nuclear blackmail by participating in a restricted battle under the nuclear threshold”.

India’s main situation for diplomatic re-engagement, he mentioned, is “the credible and verifiable enforcement of the prohibition on all anti-India militant teams”.

So, the inherent situations that led to final yr’s warfare stay unresolved.

“On account of mutual mistrust and the absence of dependable communication channels, the probability of battle reigniting is important,” Donthi mentioned.

The water entrance

Of all of the vulnerabilities uncovered by the battle, the one which seems to be attracting the least concrete coverage responses is the water concern, say analysts.

India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on April 23 final yr and has but to reinstate it.

The treaty underpins one of many world’s largest contiguous irrigation programs, supplying greater than 80 p.c of Pakistan’s agricultural water, in response to the World Financial institution, and sustaining the livelihoods of greater than 240 million individuals.

Pakistan’s efficient water storage capability stands at roughly 30 days, in contrast with India’s – between 120 and 220 days.

Pakistani Minister for Planning Improvement Ahsan Iqbal, addressing a authorities assembly on water on April 30, mentioned that India’s makes an attempt to make use of water as an instrument of stress highlighted “a critical exterior dimension to Pakistan’s water safety.”

Consultants warning in opposition to viewing the transfer as a direct operational disaster.

Erum Sattar, a US-based impartial water legislation and coverage scholar, argued that India’s invocation of “abeyance” from the pact has no foundation within the treaty’s authorized framework.

Beneath the treaty’s phrases, she mentioned, India stays obligated to share knowledge on water releases and river situations.

“Without having this info actually impacts Pakistan’s water safety and must be catalogued and contested, its fast results are restricted,” she advised Al Jazeera.

Naseer Memon, an Islamabad-based environmental specialist, agreed.

“India’s suspension of the IWT is against the law and unethical, nevertheless it doesn’t pose any imminent menace,” he mentioned, arguing that inside failings, together with poorly maintained canals, outdated farming practices and unsuitable cropping patterns, posed extra fast risks.

Hassan Abbas, an Islamabad-based water and atmosphere guide, provided a sharper evaluation.

“The worst consequence for Pakistan’s water safety will not be hypothetical,” he advised Al Jazeera. “It already occurred and was legitimised by the Indus Waters Treaty.”

Abbas argued that the treaty had, from its inception, formalised somewhat than prevented Pakistan’s water insecurity. “In impact, the treaty let India take all of the water that could possibly be taken, and ‘gave’ Pakistan what couldn’t,” he mentioned.

The longer-term outlook is much less reassuring. Sattar argued that the infrastructure Pakistan is now dashing to construct could provide diminishing returns as temperatures rise.

If world temperatures improve by 3-4 levels Celsius (37-39F), she mentioned, between one-third and half of the area’s glaciers may disappear.

“Pakistan might want to learn to construct an financial system that delivers for its individuals with a drastically decreased quantity of water,” she mentioned. “That’s the actual menace to nationwide safety, not, per se, transboundary water challenges.”

Clary provided a extra measured evaluation. A collapse of the IWT cooperation would grow to be “a significant political and financial irritant within the India-Pakistan relationship for the indefinite future”, he mentioned, however famous that “irritants are not often triggers for battle”.

India has mentioned that the treaty will stay suspended till Pakistan takes what New Delhi describes as credible and irreversible steps in opposition to cross-border armed teams that focus on India and Indian-administered Kashmir.

However 12 months after the missile exchanges, no diplomatic decision is in sight.

Faisal, the Sydney-based scholar, mentioned the doctrinal logic on either side was nonetheless taking part in out.

“Pakistan has to show long-range standard missile strikes and drones flying… over main Indian cities through the subsequent disaster,” he mentioned. “Solely then will this selection be disavowed by either side.”

Bhaskar, for his half, provided a warning that minimize throughout each capitals.

“Either side must put money into Plan B diplomacy and quiet channels to manage the escalation,” he mentioned. “For when it happens, will probably be very fast.”